{"id":9056,"date":"2026-01-30T12:42:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T11:42:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/fhu-premimpact.org\/?post_type=publication&#038;p=9056"},"modified":"2026-02-09T12:47:54","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T11:47:54","slug":"survival-without-bronchopulmonary-dysplasia-in-extremely-preterm-infants-an-external-population-based-validation-comparison-and-optimisation-study-of-recent-prediction-models-at-baseline","status":"publish","type":"publication","link":"https:\/\/fhu-premimpact.org\/en\/publications\/survival-without-bronchopulmonary-dysplasia-in-extremely-preterm-infants-an-external-population-based-validation-comparison-and-optimisation-study-of-recent-prediction-models-at-baseline\/","title":{"rendered":"Survival without bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants: an external, population-based validation, comparison and optimisation study of recent prediction models at baseline"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Abstract<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Objective:<\/strong> Existing predictive models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) often lack external validation, limiting their clinical use. This study aimed to externally validate recent BPD prediction models using baseline variables, in a population-based cohort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Design:<\/strong> This was an external validation study conducted on data collected from 2014 to 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Setting:<\/strong> This was a retrospective, multicentre, population-level cohort with prospectively collected data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Participants:<\/strong> Extremely low gestational age neonates recorded in the SwissNeoNet registry across all nine level III neonatal care units in Switzerland (n=1748) were included.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Interventions:<\/strong> Recent BPD prediction models estimating the risk of BPD or death at 36 weeks postmenstrual age, based on predictors available within the first 24 hours of life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Main outcome measures:<\/strong> The primary outcome was survival without BPD. A systematic literature search identified five eligible models, which were externally validated and recalibrated for the Swiss cohort. The most performant model was further optimised to improve local applicability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Results:<\/strong> Among 693 screened studies, five models based solely on perinatal variables were included. Without recalibration, models showed fair discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) 0.70-0.76) but variable calibration (observed\/expected (O\/E) 0.58-0.80). After recalibration, AUCs ranged from 0.69 to 0.76, and calibration improved (O\/E 0.58-1.61). The optimised version of the best-performing model demonstrated improved calibration (O\/E 1.03) and was validated in the Swiss population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong> By comparing and externally validating existing BPD prediction models, we propose an optimised model using baseline variables at birth, enhancing its applicability to both the Swiss population and similar clinical contexts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Network. Arch Dis Child Fetal Neonatal Ed. 2026 Jan 30:fetalneonatal 2025 329456.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-9056","publication","type-publication","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Survival without bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants: an external, population-based validation, comparison and optimisation study of recent prediction models at baseline - FHU Prem&#039;IMPACT<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fhu-premimpact.org\/en\/publications\/survival-without-bronchopulmonary-dysplasia-in-extremely-preterm-infants-an-external-population-based-validation-comparison-and-optimisation-study-of-recent-prediction-models-at-baseline\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Survival without bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely preterm infants: an external, population-based validation, comparison and optimisation study of recent prediction models at baseline - FHU Prem&#039;IMPACT\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Network. 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